WHY FALL LEAVES CHANGE COLOR

I just returned from visiting my daughter, Vanessa, in West Virginia. As you can see in the photos, she has a large bandage on her left forearm from suffering two broken fingers in an auto accident in which her car rolled many times and she was so fortunate to survive.

Once again I missed the "peak" fall color, but was close. This time it occurred in the next two weeks after I was there. Last year it happened the week before I was there. So I will go again next year and keep dreaming of hitting it right on!

Even though this blog is supposed to be about things I learned in pediatrics that weren't in the book, I figured most of us don't know why fall leaves change color, so the reason is below.

Why Leaves Change

Every autumn we revel in the beauty of the fall colors. The mixture of red, purple, orange and yellow is the result of chemical processes that take place in the tree as the seasons change from summer to winter.

During the spring and summer the leaves have served as factories where most of the foods necessary for the tree's growth are manufactured. This food-making process takes place in the leaf in numerous cells containing chlorophyll, which gives the leaf its green color. This extraordinary chemical absorbs from sunlight the energy that is used in transforming carbon dioxide and water to carbohydrates, such as sugars and starch.

Along with the green pigment are yellow to orange pigments, carotenes and xanthophyll pigments which, for example, give the orange color to a carrot. Most of the year these colors are masked by great amounts of green coloring.

Chlorophyll Breaks Down

But in the fall, because of changes in the length of daylight and changes in temperature, the leaves stop their food-making process. The chlorophyll breaks down, the green color disappears, and the yellow to orange colors become visible and give the leaves part of their fall splendor.

At the same time, other chemical changes may occur, which form additional colors through the development of red anthocyanin pigments. Some mixtures give rise to the reddish and purplish fall colors of trees such as dogwoods and sumacs, while others give the sugar maple its brilliant orange.

The autumn foliage of some trees shows only yellow colors. Others, like many oaks, display mostly browns. All these colors are due to the mixing of varying amounts of the chlorophyll residue and other pigments in the leaf during the fall season.

Other Changes Take Place

As the fall colors appear, other changes are taking place. At the point where the stem of the leaf is attached to the tree, a special layer of cells develops and gradually severs the tissues that support the leaf. At the same time, the tree seals the cut, so that when the leaf is finally blown off by the wind or falls from its own weight, it leaves behind a leaf scar.

Most of the broad-leaved trees in the North shed their leaves in the fall. However, the dead brown leaves of the oaks and a few other species may stay on the tree until growth starts again in the spring. In the South, where the winters are mild, some of the broad-leaved trees are evergreen; that is, the leaves stay on the trees during winter and keep their green color.

Only Some Trees Lose Leaves

Most of the conifers -- pines, spruces, firs, hemlocks, cedars, etc. -- are evergreen in both the North and South. The needle- or scale-like leaves remain green or greenish the year round, and individual leaves may stay on for two to four years or more.

Weather Affects Color Intensity

Temperature, light, and water supply have an influence on the degree and the duration of fall color. Low temperatures above freezing will favor anthocyanin formation, producing bright reds in maples. However, early frost will weaken the brilliant red color. Rainy and/or overcast days tend to increase the intensity of fall colors. The best time to enjoy the autumn color would be on a clear, dry and cool (not freezing) day.

Enjoy the color; it only occurs for a brief period each fall.

Courtesy of SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry. Text prepared by Carl E. Palm, Jr., Instructional Support Specialist, Faculty of Environmental and Forest Biology

THE SUNSHINE VITAMIN

Until the second half of 2009, I knew that Vitamin D was in multi-vitamins and my calcium tablets, and way in the back of my mind somewhere was the stuff about Vitamin D and preventing rickets, but that's about all I knew. When the Panic Swine of 09 arrived and talk of a "new"vaccine hit the press, I began searching Google for other alternatives than a new, briefly tested vaccine.

I didn't have to look far to find Until the second half Dr. John Cannell, a psychiatrist at Atascadero State Hospital in San Luis Obisbo county. Dr. Cannell had become interested in Vitamin D and it's protective effect against influenza. He found that there were certain patients at his hospital who never seemed to get the flu, year after year. When he measured Vitamin D levels he found that these patients had really good levels, whereas the other patients had insufficient levels.

In addition to Dr. Cannell's work, I also found out that Dr. Michael Holick of Boston University Medical Schoom had been researching Vitamin D for over 40 years and realized that there is a Vitamin D receptor in every organ in our body. Preventing rickets in young children is just the tip of the iceberg as far as human diseases and prevention by Vitamin D sufficiency.

"When human skin is exposed to sufficiently powerful ultraviolet (UV) radiation from sunlight, a form of cholesterol contained in our skin ("7-dehydrocholesterol") is converted into the precursor of Vitamin D, called "cholecalciferol". This is then converted by our liver into the inactive bulk storage form of Vitamin D that blood tests measure ("25-hydroxyvitamin D"). Although Vitamin D is present in limited amounts in cod liver oil and some fatty fish (salmon, mackerel and tuna), it is essentially unavailable in metabolically useful quantities from dietary sources.

As we age, our skin gradually loses its youthful cholesterol and its ability to synthesize Vitamin D declines over time. Although it has not been widely studies, some reports indicate that by the age of 50, Vitamin D production has fallen to approximately 50% of its original rate, and by age 65 production will have fallen to just 25% of its original capability. And independent of age, the skin's melanin pigmentation - either from natural genetic racial coloration or tanning adaptation -- acts to absorb much of the sun's visible and ultraviolet radiation. This skin darkening has the beneficial effect of protecting our skin from UV radiation damage, but at the expense of further reducing the skin's rate and capacity for Vitamin D production. (Melanin is 99.9% efficient in absorbing the energy from ultraviolet light, converting it into harmless heat.)" These two previous paragraphs are from Steve Gibson. http://www.grc.com/health/vitamin-d.htm

There is in fact, an epidemic of Vitamin D deficiency which is now worldwide. This has occured because of several factors. The first is that the current Institute of Medicine recommendation for the daily requirement for Vitamin D was established in the 1960s and has not been revised since that time, even though most of the research about Vitamin D has occurred in the past 10 years. And the "recommended daily allowance" or "minimum daily requirement" of vitamins listed on foods is based on the minimum amount of Vitamin D to avoid rickets in young children and has nothing to do with the real requirement to prevent "long-latency" diseases like diabetes, auto-immune diseases like arthritis, heart disease, thyroid disease, mental disease, cancer, multiple sclerosis and for our immune system function. A second reason for the widespread deficient Vitamin D levels is the changes in our life style. The average American spends 95% of every day inside and the average American child spends 6 minutes per day outside. And the third reason is that even if we are outside, how much Vitamin D we can absorb is determined by our skin pigmentation, the latitude in which we live, the time of day we are outside, the season of the year (and the angle of the sun). A rule of thumb is that if your shadow is longer than you are tall, you are absorbing no Vitamin D. And effective sunscreening effectively blocks Vitamin D absorption. A fourth reason, which is especially important in sunny climates is that dermatologists have long recommended avoiding sun exposure because of the fear of skin cancer.

Perhaps the most important medical issue at stake related to Vitamin D status is the Vitamin D level of pregnant women. Prenatal vitamins contain the minimum required 400iu of Vitamin D. This is the same amount that is recommended for the newborn baby after birth. As Dr. Reinhold Vieth from Canada says, "Do the math!" The amount getting to the fetus when the mother is taking 400iu of Vitamin D is inadequate. Dr. Carol Wagner and others from the Medical University of South Carolina has completed a study of pregnant and lactating women and shown that mothers with sufficient levels of Vitamin D has 50% less C-sections, 50% less prematurity and 30% less high blood pressure in late pregnancy. With this information available, it is prudent for all pregnant women to measure their Vitamin D level and get enough Vitamin D from sun or supplement to maintain a sufficient level. (Food is not a good source.)

One would expect that all of us residing in sunny southern California should have wonderful Vitamin D levels, but there are actually a significant number of children and adults who are in the insufficient range. I measured my Vitamin D level, 25(OH)D, in September after a summer of sun and my level was insufficient. In my own personal case, I had been having chronic knee pain related to years of running down hills and mountain trails (and finding out after 64 years that one leg is shorter than the other). Once I began taking enough Vitamin D to get my level into the preventative range, my knee pain virtually disappeared. This decrease of muscle and joint pain has been reported from many different sources.

The Swine Panic of 09 was an unpleasant experience, but learning about Vitamin D and it's importance in our ongoing health made all of that Panic almost worth it. If you don't know your Vitamin D level, ask you physician to measure 25(OH)D and compare it to the following chart which shows the protective ranges of Vitamin D levels related to long latency diseases.

The next photo shows the Vitamin D levels of primates and early man.

Just as I was unaware of the far reaching implications of Vitamin D deficiency, most physicians are likewise unaware of this information. It is actually the media that is spreading the word to the public and then the public going to physicians and asking to measure Vitamin D levels.

Of final note is that the Chicago Blackhawks became the first professional sports team to be Vitamin D sufficient. The result was that they won the Stanley Cup for the first time in almost 50 years. Might be coincidental, but next time you ask your favorite sports star for an autograph, ask "What's your Vitamin D level?"

DOUBLE DIGIT YEARS OF MY LIFE

I WAS 11 IN 1955.

I LIVED IN NORMAN, OKLAHOMA. O.U. WON EVERY GAME AND AND I SAT IN THE SOUTH END ZONE FOR EVERY HOME GAME. IT WAS CALLED THE THE BIG 7 AT THAT TIME. THEY WON THE ORANGE BOWL AND BUD WILKINSON WAS THE COACH. I FINISHED 5TH GRADE AND STARTED 6TH GRADE AT MADISON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. I WAS PLAYING TROMBONE WITH THE JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL BAND AS A SIXTH GRADER. I WAS IN BOY SCOUTS AND A FIRST CLASS AND I ATTENDED THE NATIONAL BOY SCOUT JAMBOREE IN VALLEY FORGE, PA. OUR FAMILY DROVE TO LOS ANGELES FOR THE ROSE BOWL GAME AND OHIO STATE DEFEATED USC ON THE FIRST DAY OF 1956.

FAVORITE MUSIC: BOOMER SOONER, OKLAHOMA, THE MUSICAL

I WAS 22 IN 1966.

I GRADUATED FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO UNIVERSITY. I LEFT PORTALES IN MY 66 PONTIAC LEMANS AND DROVE TO CHICAGO TO BEGIN MEDICAL SCHOOL AT NORTHWESTERN. I LIVED IN ABBOTT HALL ON THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MY FIRST YEAR IN CHICAGO IT SNOWED LIKE NEVER BEFORE, INCLUDING 23" IN 29 HOURS ON JANUARY 27, 1967. I GOT A 90 ON MY FIRST ANATOMY EXAM IN MED SCHOOL AND IT WAS A C. I LEARNED THAT TRASH CAN PUNCH IS DANGEROUS! I LEARNED ABOUT DA BEARS AND BECAME A BLACK HAWKS FAN. I LEARNED TO COOK FOOD IN A POPCORN POPPER TO SAVE MONEY TO GO OUT. WE ATE SUNDAY NIGHT DINNER AT A CLOSE-BY HOTEL THAT HAD ALL THE FISH YOU COULD EAT FOR $1.

FAVORITE MUSIC: THE ASTRONAUTS AND THE BEACH BOYS AND SOON TO BE CHICAGO.

I WAS 33 IN 1977.

I HAD BEEN MARRIED TO LALA FOR 9 YEARS AND LIVING IN LAKE FOREST IN THE "OLD WOODS" ON JERONIMO LANE. MICHAEL PLAYED K-LEAGUE SOCCER. I HAD STARTED RUNNING AND ABOUT THAT TIME RAN MY FIRST 1OK WHICH WAS CALLED THE LAKE FOREST "MARATHON". SADDLEBACK PEDIATRICS WAS FOUR YEARS OLD AND STARTING TO GROW RAPIDLY. VANESSA TURNED ONE YEAR OLD AND MICHAEL TURNED 5.

FAVORITE MUSIC: CHICAGO, MERLE HAGGARD, EMMYLOU

I WAS 44 IN 1988.

I HAD RUN 4 MARATHONS (SAN DIEGO, SAN FRANCISCO, HUMBOLDT REDWOODS AND NYC). LALA WAS A LAWYER. I WAS COACHING GIRL'S SOCCER. SADDLEBACK PEDIATRICS WAS 15 YEARS OLD AND WE HAD MOVED TO BUILDING #3. MICHAEL TURNED 16 AND VANESSA 12. IT WAS OUR 9TH YEAR TO GO TO ALISAL AND WE HAD BEEN TO SNOWMASS FOR 10 SKI SEASONS.

FAVORITE MUSIC; CHICAGO, EAGLES, MICHAEL MCDONALD, RICKY SKAGGS

I WAS 55 IN 1999.

I HAD MOVED TO SEAVIEW PEDIATRICS. LALA WAS ALMOST RETIRED FROM LAW. MICHAEL WAS IN DENTAL SCHOOL AT UT HOUSTON AND VANESSA GRADUATED FROM RICE, ALSO IN HOUSTON, WHERE THEY LIVED TOGETHER. MY MOUSTACHE AND LONG HAIR HAD DISAPPEARED.

FAVORITE MUSIC: CHICAGO, EAGLES, MERLE HAGGARD, RICKY SKAGGS

I AM TURNING 66 ON APRIL 18.

I HAVE BEEN IN PEDIATRICS FOR 40 YEARS COUNTING RESIDENCY. I AM TAKING CARE OF THE BABIES OF MY BABIES AND I HAVE THE BABIES OF MY SON, MICHAEL, LIVING AT MY HOUSE. LALA IS ENJOYING BEING A GRANDMOTHER. VANESSA IS AN ASISSTANT PROFESSOR OF SPORT PSYCHOLOGY AT WEST VIRGINIA UNIVERSITY. MICHAEL HAS A WONDERFUL PEDIATRIC DENTAL PRACTICE WITH SAMMY AS HIS OFFICE MANAGER. SPENCER IS IN PRE-K AND PLAYING T-BALL. OWEN WILL START PRE-SCHOOL IN THE FALL.

THE DOUBLE DIGITS HAVE BEEN GOOD YEARS!!

LOCATION: PANIC SWINE OF 09

http://thepanicswineofo9.blogspot.com/

PANIC SWINE OF 09

The full blog of the H1N1 swine flu panic is on a separate blog listed on my profile. Here I will only list the highlights of the longer blog.

Pigs, birds, and humans are each susceptible to many flu viruses. Typically, these viruses infect only one species. However, sometimes these viruses swap genes and create new viruses that can infect more than one species. Even then, new viruses that are capable of infecting two species typically are very difficult to transmit from human to human. Sometimes, however, further recombinations or mutations of genes create a virus that can spread rapidly among humans – thus creating a global pandemic. The worst global pandemic in modern times was the flu pandemic of 1918-1919. It affected about a third of the human race and killed at least 40 million people in roughly 1 year.

Simultaneous Appearance in Humans and Swine (1918)

Before 1918, influenza in humans was well known, but the disease had never been described in pigs. For pig farmers in Iowa, everything changed after the Cedar Rapids Swine Show, which was held in September of that year. Just as the 1918 pandemic spread the human influenza A (H1N1) virus worldwide and killed 40 million to 50 million people, herds of swine were hit with a respiratory illness that closely resembled the clinical syndrome affecting humans. Similarities in the clinical presentations and pathologic features of influenza in humans and swine suggested that pandemic human influenza in 1918 was actually adapted to the pig, and the search for the causative agent began.

The breakthrough came in 1931 when Robert Shope, a veterinarian, transmitted the infectious agent of swine influenza from sick pigs, by filtering their virus containing secretions, to healthy animals.

CNN March 2009

Doctors: No definitive answers on flu deaths among young

For most, the flu is a winter inconvenience -- stuffy nose, fever, body aches and a few days of bed rest. But what seems fairly routine also can become life-threatening. The virus causes inflammation throughout the body and disturbs the functions of the body, including breathing. Typically half of the flu deaths occur in children who have degenerative heart or lung disease or immune risk factors, but the other half are seemingly healthy.

"There isn't a good understanding of why that happens," said Dr. John Treanor, professor of medicine and of microbiology and immunology at the University of Rochester School of Medicine.

"There's speculation that these children, for genetic reasons, had unusual immune response to the flu, resulting in deaths."

August 26, 2009

CDC Confirms Ties to Virus First Discovered in U.S. Pig Factories

Starting in the early 1990s, the U.S. pig industry restructured itself after Tyson's profitable chicken model of massive industrial-sized units. As a headline in the trade journal National Hog Farmer announced, "Overcrowding Pigs Pays—If It's Managed Properly."

The majority of U.S. pig farms now confine more than 5,000 animals each.

Researchers also found that when farms were packed close together, as is increasingly the case in high pig-density areas of North America and Europe, pigs appeared to have up to 16.7 times the odds of testing positive for swine flu. "Close location enhances the possibility for windborne, personnel, and fomites disease transmission from one farm to another." The "spread of pig slurry [urine and feces]" on nearby land may also play a role.

JealousBrother.com

August 10th, 2009

What does the CDC consider a confirmed case of Swine Flu?

The CDC uses the following guidelines: A confirmed case of novel influenza A (H1 N1 ) virus infection is defined as a person with an

Influenza-like illness (ILI is defined as fever (temperature of 100°F [37.8°C] or greater) and a cough and/or a sore throat in the absence of a KNOWN cause other than influenza.) with laboratory confirmed novel influenza A (H1 N1 ) virus infection by one or more of the following tests:

1. real-time RT-PCR

2. viral culture

The CDC has this to say about the real-time RT-PCR test, “If reactivty of real-time RT-PCR for influenza A is strong it is more suggestive of a novel influenza A (H1 N1 ) virus. Confirmation as novel influenza A (H1 N1 ) virus by real-time RT-PCR was originally performed only at CDC, but at this time may be available in your state public health laboratory ."

The CDC has this to say about Viral Cultures: “Isolation of novel influenza A (H1 N1 ) virus is diagnostic of infection, but may not yield timely results for clinical management. A negative viral culture does not exclude infection with novel influenza A (H1 N1 ) virus.”

So what exactly am I getting at? There is no way for a physician or health organization to definitively tell a patient whether they have H1 N1 , H3 N2 , or any other Influenza A sub-type (Which includes seasonal flu) when using readily available RIDT’s. The only diagnostic results come from the lengthy process of laboratory analyzed cultures and rRt-PCR swine flu panels.

2008 Oct

Influenza vaccine effectiveness among children 6 to 59 months of age during 2 influenza seasons

Strong Memorial Hospital, Rochester, NY

OBJECTIVE: To measure vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing influenza-related health care

visits among children aged 6 to 59 months during 2 consecutive influenza seasons.

CONCLUSION: In 2 seasons with suboptimal antigenic match between vaccines and circulating

strains, we could not demonstrate VE in preventing influenzarelated

inpatient/ED or outpatient visits in children younger than

5 years.

“Surprisingly little information exists regarding influenza vaccine effectiveness among young children receiving vaccine in routine health care settings.”

Oct. 21, 2009

Swine Flu Cases Overestimated?

Study Of State Results Finds H1N1 Not As Prevalent As Feared

If you've been diagnosed "probable" or "presumed" 2009 H1N1 or "swine flu" in recent months, you may be surprised to know this: odds are you didn’t have H1N1 flu. In fact, you probably didn’t have flu at all. That's according to state-by-state test results obtained in a three-month-long CBS News investigation.

The ramifications of this finding are important. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Britain's National Health Service, once you have H1N1 flu, you're immune from future outbreaks of the same virus. Those who think they've had H1N1 flu -- but haven't -- might mistakenly presume they're immune. As a result, they might skip taking a vaccine that could help them, and expose themselves to others with H1N1 flu under the mistaken belief they won't catch it. Parents might not keep sick children home from school, mistakenly believing they've already had H1N1 flu.

NOVEMBER 2009 ATLANTIC

Does the Vaccine Matter?

More than 200 known viruses and other pathogens can cause the suite of symptoms known as “influenza-like illness”; respiratory syncytial virus, bocavirus, coronavirus, and rhinovirus are just a few of the bugs that can make a person feel rotten. And depending on the season, in up to two-thirds of the cases of flu-like illness, no cause at all can be found.

. The only way to know if someone has the flu—as opposed to influenza-like illness—is by putting a Q-tip into the patient’s throat or nose and running a test, which simply isn’t done that often. Likewise, nobody really has a handle on how many of the deaths that are blamed on flu were actually caused by a flu virus, because few are confirmed by a laboratory. “I used to be a family physician,” says Jefferson. “I’ve never seen a patient come to my office with H1N1 written on his forehead. When an old person dies of respiratory failure after an influenza-like illness, they nearly always get coded as influenza.”

“Launched early enough and continued long enough, social distancing can blunt the impact of a pandemic,” says Howard Markel, a pediatrician and historian of medicine at the University of Michigan.

Washing hands diligently, avoiding public places during an outbreak,

and having a supply of canned goods and water on hand are sound

defenses, he says. Such steps could be highly effective in helping to slow the spread of the virus.

Fear of Flu: Shifting the Goalposts

KAISER HEALTH NEWS

NOV 2009

Is the 2009 H1N1 more dangerous than garden variety seasonal flu, for healthy kids compared to kids with underlying illnesses? According to a paper published last month in the New England Journal of Medicine, probably not. The authors found that 60 percent of children who were hospitalized with swine flu had underlying illnesses. In years past, only 31 to 43 percent of children who were hospitalized with seasonal flu had similar underlying illnesses – meaning that the rate at which 2009 H1N1 causes serious illness in healthy children is lower than with seasonal flu.

As of August 31, however, the CDC said that anyone 18 years or older who dies with a syndrome known as influenza-like illness, or ILI, can be included in the count. The CDC has no requirement for uniform reporting of flu deaths by the states. Twenty-eight states, according to the agency, report only laboratory-confirmed flu deaths, while the others are now reporting deaths that look to doctors like they might be the result of flu.

That decision could dramatically inflate the numbers of reported flu deaths this year. By the CDC's weekly estimate, when doctors think a patient has the flu, they are wrong between 46 and 82 percent of the time.

Why should any of this matter? In part, because statistics, when filtered by the popular media, can scare the daylights out of the public and feed pandemic worries that may not be justified. The numbers also matter to public policy. As reported deaths rise, the CDC tends to enlarge its recommendation for who should be vaccinated, and who should receive anti-viral drugs. For example, based on rising pediatric deaths, the CDC issued new recommendations in 2009 that all children from 6 months to 18 years should get the flu vaccine each year. Previously, the vaccine was recommended only for high-risk children.

Pandemic preparedness for swine flu influenza in the United States.

In March and early April 2009, Mexico experienced outbreaks of influenza caused by the H1N1

virus, which has spread throughout the world. With the pandemic of H1N1 infections, we have

discussed in this scientific article strategies that should limit the spread of the influenza A (H1N1)

virus in our country. Specific vaccines against the influenza H1N1 virus are being manufactured,

and a licensed vaccine is expected to be available in the United States by mid-October 2009.

However, some health-care workers may be hesitant to take a vaccine because it contains a

mercury preservative-thimerosal-which can be harmful to their health. When caring for patients

with respiratory infections, the health-care worker should be wearing a facial respirator. In a report

from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), it was indicated that each healthcare

professional should be required to do a respiratory fit testing to identify the ideal model.

Because it has been well documented that a vitamin D deficiency can

precipitate the influenza virus, we strongly recommend that all health-care

workers and patients be tested and treated for vitamin D deficiency to

prevent exacerbation of a respiratory infection.

11/20/2009

By Sen. Joseph Lieberman

Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Chairman

While this new flu strain is affecting most people mildly, it has affected a small percentage

severely, and vaccine production problems have meant that some identified by the Department of

Health and Human Services as high risks for infection have not been able to get inoculated.

HHS promises national delivery of millions vaccine doses a week for the next few months.

But it does not ease my own concerns about HHS' miscalculations….Furthermore, unlike traditional seasonal flu that disproportionally affects the elderly, the H1N1 virus is impacting young people, with over 50 percent of hospitalizations and a quarter of all deaths occurring in people under the age of 25. Alarmingly, young children are at very serious risk, with about 540 pediatric deaths tallied so far.

I LIKE JOE LIEBERMAN, BUT SENATORS SHOULD USE ACCURATE NUMBERS WHICH ARE MORE AVAILABLE TO THEM THAN ANY CITIZEN IN ORDER NOT TO FRIGHTEN THEIR CONSTITUENTS. THE NUMBERS FROM THE CDC ON NOV 21, 2009 RECORD 243 PEDIATRIC DEATHS.

WHO’S TELLING THE TRUTH? – A BIG PROBLEM DURING THE SWINE PANIC

December 10, 2009, 1:00 p.m.

THOMAS FRIEDEN, DIRECTOR OF THE CDC

Thomas Frieden: Good afternoon, everybody. Today we're releasing new estimates as we said we would. The bottom line is that by November 14th, the day up to which those estimates include, many times more children and younger adults, unfortunately, have been hospitalized or killed by H1N1 influenza than occurs during a regular flu season.

What we have seen so far reiterates that people under the age of 65 are most heavily impacted by influenza. By November 14th, many times more children and younger adults, unfortunately, have been hospitalized or killed by H1N1 influenza than happens in a usual flu season. Specifically, there have been, we estimate there have been nearly 50 million cases, mostly in younger adults and children. More than 200,000 hospitalizations which is about the same number that there is in a usual flu season for the entire year. And, sadly, nearly 10,000 deaths, including 1,100 among children and 7,500 among younger adults. That.s much higher than in a usual flu season.,,, The estimate we have – the estimate that we're releasing here is not done in the same way that gives us the 36,000 estimate. That estimate is a different methodology. And will give a slightly larger number than this number would give. But if you were to compare, even though it's not a directly applicable comparison, under 50 in that estimate, there are less than 1,000 deaths a year in age under 50. We didn't break out in this —we’re not able to at this time, the 50 to 64 versus 50. But a large portion of those adults are under 50. So it is really many times more severe in terms of severe illness and hospitalizations are several times higher for children and young adults as well in H1N1 than in a usual flu season.

REALLY?????

THE CDC DIRECTOR’S FIGURE DOESN’T QUITE JIVE WITH THE CDC REPORT OF MARCH 2010 WHICH RECORDS 331 PEDIATRIC DEATHS.

Science

December 2009:

VIRUS OF THE YEAR: The Novel H1N1 Influenza

For years, scientists have been warning about the potential for an influenza pandemic on the order of the 1918 Spanish flu. They imagined the culprit would surface in Asia--and, since 2003, have worried that the avian influenza strain H5N1 might be it. Health officials worldwide drafted one preparedness plan after another. But the pandemic that erupted last spring looks nothing like the one in the plans. Not only did it begin in North America, but the swine virus behind it is a novel form of an H1N1 strain already circulating in humans. And although the new H1N1 is unusually dangerous for the young and for pregnant women, in most otherwise healthy people it causes a disease no more severe than seasonal flu. Scientists have repeatedly warned that this relatively mild virus could mutate or swap genes with cousins and become deadlier. But for now, it looks as if this H1N1 will go down in history more for causing confusion than catastrophe.

THE CDC HAS CONTINUED TO PUT OUT PERIODIC ESTIMATES OF PEDIATRIC DEATHS WHICH ARE EXAGGERATED BY 2-3 TIMES. THEY CONTINUE TO HAVE ADDS ON TV RECOMMENDING VACCINATION AGAINST THE H1N1 FLU EVEN THOUGH THE H1N1 HAS ESSENTIALLY LEFT THE U.S. THE LAST ARTICLE ON THE PANIC SWINE 09 BLOG IS ABOUT THE SUSPICIAN THAT MUCH ABOUT THE SWINE FLU PANDEMIC MAY HAVE BEEN DRIVEN BY MONEY!